Sunday, June 29, 2008

Rambling About Gambling

I began gambling at age 23, greener than a dollar bill at planning my financial security. I knew chances of winning were against me but I succumbed to the temptation strictly because newly found friends had invited me to participate in what they viewed as entertainment at the Sanford-Hernando Kennel Club.

It was then that I was faced with placing my hard earned dollars across a betting window at the Sanford-Orlando Kennel Club. It was also then that I came to appreciate the exquisite, intelligent design of greyhounds. They’re not as stately as horses but their physique is envious. If only I could have a waistline like that proportionate to my stature!

I had no idea what I was doing. The racing form was filled with an array of numbers - a history of past wins, places and shows – plus body weights and daily odds. It was all gobbledygook to me. So I resorted to placing my first bet solely on a hunch by the name of the greyhound. There was no rationale whatsoever. Regardless, my chances of winning were about as good as they could get.

I was standing in line, anticipating my initial experience at a betting window. Yes, I was a bit nervous. When I got to the betting window, I made my choice. With the noisy distractions of the crowd, I thought he couldn’t hear me so I repeated the numbers.

When he said, “four dollars”, I was speechless. I hadn’t intended to double the risk factor but here I was with two tickets with the same numbers. This was a very costly mistake. I gambled twice as much as I had wanted, now 20% of my overall acceptable risk.

I couldn’t share my faux pas with my friends. I was alarmed, ready to call it a day at the races and leave, but I put on a show of anticipated joy. I soon heard the words, “Watch the bunny” with an inflection similar to “Here’s Johnny”.

It wasn’t one of those moments when nervous tension makes it seem like time has come to a standstill. Before I knew it, the race was over and my dog was the winner! Momentarily speechless, my jubilation was soon apparent when I announced to my friends that beginner’s “luck of the Scottish” had made me a winner. The tickets rewarded me with $45 each! By the end of the day, I was still pleased to go home with a good amount of winnings in my pocket.

Since then I’ve been taken to a floating gambling casino in Illinois, the Santa Anita Race Track and a few visits to Las Vegas. My biggest win came in 1989 shortly after moving back to Florida after a ten-year period of personal mobility. The moves were risky in themselves but I always came out ahead. This time, I had beaten the odds of choosing five out of six numbers in the Florida Lottery. I cashed in on $1200 in winnings! Today’s dollar values would make it twice as much.

Since then, lady luck has avoided me, most recently putting my financial security at undeserving risk. With no exception, every homeowner in Florida is unjustly in the same situation.
The cause? First it was Jeb. Charlie has followed suit. Citizens Property Insurance is the culprit, drummed up by the Florida Legislature in 2002 for homeowners unable to otherwise obtain coverage in high-risk (coastal) areas.

When I recently reviewed my insurance renewal charges I decided to check out other options for coverage. Come to find out, since few companies are writing new policies, my sole option would be Citizens. My insurance agent forewarned me that Citizens’ rates are currently frozen. In 2010 the fees will most likely double. I nixed the idea, just as I did with thoughts of increasing the hurricane deductible from $2K to $10K. I could save about $500 in yearly premiums. I heard a voice telling me “Don’t do it!” It wasn’t my subconscious telling me - I was talking out loud to myself.

Like a jilted lover, private insurers are most likely to refuse to take back homeowners who choose to switch to the government-owned competitor.

The problem is that politicians and lobbyists in Tallahassee are clueless on risk management. Casino gambling is an individual’s choice but when it comes to protecting the value of a home it’s more than just poor judgment blatant disregard for the financial well being of the homeowner.

Forgoing flood insurance coverage when you’re not in a flood zone is one thing but eliminating sinkhole coverage could be a living nightmare to a homeowner. When you live in a state that assumes the risk of a heavy hurricane season without having sufficient funds to pay for claims, the additional liability is eventually billed to its citizens.

Running On Fumes

This past week the price that investors pay for crude-oil futures slid upward to more than $140 per barrel. The significance of the increase will accentuate the hardships of parents who transports kids to school events, charitable organizations whose volunteers deliver essentials to the needy, school districts whose bus expenses have already put thoughts of putting the lives of children at risk by making them walk to their schools, pizza delivery employees whose tips may be insufficient to warrant the limited monetary compensation they already receive… and residents of Hernando County who work outside the area.

The pay may be an attractive draw to seek and maintain employment in Pasco and Hillsboro Counties, but these commuters are going to be hit hard in their pocketbooks. With the cost of most everything else going up and the challenges of paying property taxes and homeowner insurance premiums there’ll little left to spend on what the Federal Governments expects from citizens to spur the economy.

The only means of people to purchase anything other than the essentials for their families will be by credit card. The Fed can lower the prime rate to zero and you can bet your life savings that interest rates on those plastics devils won’t go much below 15%. Heck, even with an excellent credit score, the worst culprit of my credit purchase woes is Bank of America. Others are currently charging less but those introductory rates have an ending date that I may not remember and, worse, the loan holders doesn’t supply on the monthly statements.

There are many Americans whose credit ratings put their interest rates above 20% or default rates that even higher.

Let me go back a few paragraphs where I mentioned there are a good number of Hernando County residents working outside the area. Their numbers equal about 34% of the County’s residents. Let’s say the average commuter put 40 miles on their vehicle to get to work, double that for a round trip then multiply by the 5-day workweek. That’s 400 miles per week.

The cost of gas is currently $4.00 or more per gallon. The vehicle gets 25 miles per gallon so the expense in gas would be $100 every month. The cost of car maintenance and repairs will surely go up but can’t be avoided to keep the machine at its best performance.

If there are thoughts of a new vehicle, forget it. The cost of my auto insurance just went up 10% from a year ago – no tickets, no accidents, no claims. A ’95 truck and an ’03 car. The telephone rep explained the increase was due to the cost of repairs and/or claims in the County. I didn’t feel safe in lowering the coverage so I fudged a bit about my estimated annual mileage.

If you think the cost of gasoline couldn’t get much worse, take into consideration that investors in oil futures expect the price of crude to reach two hundred dollars - $200 by the end of 2008, easily making the cost of gasoline go up another dollar. As the cost of petroleum goes up, so do the prices of nearly everything we Americans take for granted. And, as prices go up, the Dow will go down.

Whenever anyone suggests the slump in the economy will correct itself in a couple of years, I just don’t see it happening. After a dismal December for retail stores, January figures showed a pitiful gain of .4% - just a little more than nothing. Then I read that retail sales include gasoline. Without the increase of the price of gasoline, retail sales would have been less than zero over the prior month!

In a county that relies on retail, construction and property tax revenues, Hernando County has three strikes against its economic well-being. With a new administrator or not, there are some hefty challenges in the foreseeable future. It’ll be quite some time before new homes are built, thus construction laborers will have plenty of idle time in their lives to do whatever else is available to give them entertainment.

Workers are often displaced for lack of need in their chosen fields of employment and must seek other endeavors to achieve a measure of success in their lives. It’s a rude awakening but when survival is at stake. Only the brave and venturous shall inherit the paycheck.

The Hernando County Board of County Commissioners and their “constituents of interest” need to get off their doo-dads and plan for a future that replace ho-hum doldrums jobs with ones with real-time wages. Without the guidance and consideration of any and all the people of influence in Hernando County, a solid economic future cannot be resurrected from the past decade of housing growth.

At one point the County had a tank full of gas - now it’s running on fumes, about to stall out.