Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Now, That's A Lot of Lots!

The implications will be long in coming. The long term promises that it will, in part, attract a diversified, higher paid workforce and a better quality of life than any other period of history in Hernando County may never be realized. As a matter of fact, those same promises may be of less impact than the costs of supporting the needs that will result from of its development. Fortunately, whatever concerns there may be at this point in time will have little or no affect for a quarter of a century. By then, another generation of residents will have spent their allotted time on Earth, leaving the financial obligations to today’s infants and those not yet born.

To most residents in Hernando County, April 26, 2007, was pretty much an uneventful day, nothing out of the ordinary. Even without verification, it can pretty much be assumed to have been a pleasant day – Florida winter temperatures were gone and the intense heat of summer were a couple months away. No doubt, there were no rain showers that day due to drought conditions. The intensity of wallowing through the 2008 county budget process was a number of months away, not that the hearings had anything to do with the decision made in April.

Decisions, decisions…

Recent data indicate there are so many cleared, yet not built on, lots in Hernando County, many of which were built during the last of the investor-happy years and never occupied, that it might take 11 years to warrant new single-family construction. This compares to 4 to 5 years each for Hillsboro, Pinellas and Pasco Counties. Citrus County is looking at 42 years of blighted construction.

Developers can’t be entirely blamed any more than real estate agents. Commissioners in each county deserve the finger that points their way. They are entrusted to provide the basic, immediate social and economic well being of their residents. The higher level of government, the less oversight and importance are given, especially when “residents” become referred to as “citizens”.

I should hope that that common man or woman would agree that community leaders who approve development to such an extent that it would take years and years to reach completion, but continue to approve additional building requests, have other interests than that of the individuals he or she was elected to represent.

Tomorrow, tomorrow…

When Sierra Properties claimed victory for the approval of its Hickory Hill subdivision in April 2007, it seemed there were too few individuals in the commission’s chamber stuttering sentences that began with “Who….?” “How…?” and “Why…?”

All of a sudden the whole atmosphere changed before my senses. It wasn’t like the Twilight Zone or the Outer Limits or Night Gallery. It was one of those Tales From the Darkside. It was a tale of unreality, where everything becomes a series of what appears to be the black and white of negative exposures with colors taking on such unnatural hews that their descriptions are lost in gray matter. I’m still not sure if realtor Rose was doing an overly enthusiastic at rubbing lotion on her hands or wringing them in sinister delight for the brew that was dished up that day with the eventual 4 to 1 decision.

Nonetheless, in addition to the possibility it will actually take 11 years to build on currently vacant lots, there are also nearly 4,000 empty homes in Hernando County, some of which were investor-built, not yet sold and occupied, and others from foreclosure. There are also an unknown number of homeowners hoping to sell their value-declining home with intentions to move elsewhere. These facts and figures indicate it will be a very, very long time between now and when additional land use hearings are given consideration for residential construction.

The next construction binge has already been approved three-times over. Hickory Hill, Sun Rise and Lake Hideaway have a total of over 10,000 lots not yet cleared. Now, that’s a lot of planning for the future! By the time new housing is needed, these will be the very developments that will bring residential construction back to prominence.

In the meantime, county commissioners will have more time to spend on how to spend less and less taxpayer contributions toward a dwindling budget that will never pay for the level and quality of services that residents will have to do without. Unfortunately, this isn’t something they had planned on.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Signs of the Times


I hadn’t realized how the economy had affected my grocery purchases until I noticed there was a shortage of plastic bags that I use to discard the prizes found in Elvis and Sassy’s cat box.
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I don’t remember the last time I saw a stranded driver trudging along the roadside with a gas can in tow, but I do know that I have never seen more than one such instance in a single day. Until now, that is.
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The other day a saw a man, most likely in his thirty’s, walking with a bag of groceries at Mariner and Northcliffe Boulevards, then later on County Line Road at the Suncoast Parkway entrance. He apparently walked a mile or more in his shoes to get from here to there.
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I found it disturbing to see a young woman with two children, maybe 3 and 5 years old, standing along U.S. 19 holding a sign that read ‘WE NEED MONEY’. Maybe family and friends help with food but cash is needed for housing, electricity, doctors…
When charity is short in coming at home, the last resort is roadside begging.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Impact Fees & Other Discounts

As a follow-up to the hearing held on July 15, the Hernando County Board of County Commissioners has set the date of August 5 to further their discussion of applying for a piece of the $20-million that the State Housing Trust Fund has been allocated to stimulate local economies by reducing impact fees by 25%.

Fishkind & Associates was selected to provide an economic outlook on the prospects of providing housing to first-time homebuyers who may otherwise find it impossible to purchase their own piece of long-term investment – a home. It’s not all about the prospective homebuyer; it’s squarely directed toward boosting the local economy with jobs within the construction industry.

“Experts” will give testimonies that will probably center on presenting facts and figures that fit the mold for people and businesses of interest, namely builders.

In February of this year, at a speech to the Bay Area Real Estate Council, a group of real estate attorneys, Hank Fishkind faithfully stuck by the Federal Reserve’s belief that interest rate cuts would be an affective means to avoid a recession. This has proven to be a misguided approach as the Fed has hinted that a rate hike may be needed in the near future to slow down another negative economic indicator – inflation.

Mr. Fishkind also gave a forecast that claimed Hernando County home sales had already hit bottom and was set to be a bit on the upswing during the last quarter of 2008. The economist also gave the analysis that foreclosures aren’t as alarming as the media portrays because “It’s a thimble in the ocean.” Foreclosures were viewed as having an affect on certain neighborhoods but “not counties as a whole.”

The gentleman made the same promise at the Jully 22 BOCC hearing that the housing market in Hernando County it at it's lowest. Recovery will be a slow road through a three-year period. Ben Barnanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has a different outlook that gives the housing market Hernando County a gloomy view. With more foreclosures are in the foreseeable future and with a growing number of Americans experiencing a protracted decline in spendable income, people just won't have the money that banks now require to put down on mortgages.

Positive thinking can be an art but it doesn’t necessarily fit well with the reality of a situation. In this case, in a matter of just a few months, these same purveyors of recovery "just around the corner” are no more convincing than they were the first time around.

Americans have been enticed and dependent upon home quity loans to keep the economy spurring. Without home equity loans to continue to spur the economy, as they had over the past decade, the future looks too frighteningly real. The times are worse in Florida because of the financial handicaps from property taxes and ever-increasing homeowner insurance. These aren't expected to down anytime soon, which indicates a possible further delay in recovery.

Many analysts put the decline of the American economy, and the world at large, to extend into 2011. Even so, prospects of recovery are uncertain, surely to be a very slow process. With a myriad of economic indicators sucking the life out of nearly all financial institutes, everyday people will continue to lose their jobs, their homes and whatever life savings they may have at their disposal. A job loss means their health concerns become a casualty of lost benefits.

There is no doubt that Fishkind & Associates is a respected entity of engineering prowess and serve the interests of a vast variety of businesses. On the company’s website http://www.fishkind.com/ the list of names on Our Client List are nothing but impressive.

Out of nearly one hundred interested parties, a minimum of one-quarter is builders, real estate associations, title companies and land developers. Some are engineering and survey companies specializing in high-end golf course communities and resorts. The firm also represents property appraisers in various Florida counties. Economic development is a priority and, as the site informs, environmental concerns go hand-in-hand with every project.

Fishkind was a prominent advocate on April 26, 2007, for the approval of Sierra Property Inc and its Hickory Hill subdivision in east Hernando County, turning those rolling acres of land into roiling property investments. Fishkind & Associates is expected to fully support the impact fee reductions more for the benefit of builders than the individual who may purchase a home.

…if only there were a second opinion…

In contrast to the expertise of Fishkind, William Fruth of POLICOM Corporation, presents an unbiased “Economic Analysis Everyone Understands”. The website is at http://www.policom.com/.

Mr. Furth takes multiple factors into consideration when developing an economic evaluation/outlook of a selected area. Per capita statistics and overall jobs, earnings and wages are just a part of data sources, then broken down to statistics of individual and per capita indicators.

There is a sector that negatively reflects on a poor economy – an increase in the number of welfare recipients, including Medicaid and Social Security benefits.

Another group includes small business, construction and retail industries. They are considered “reactive” to the spending ability of consumers. Periods of poor economic times tend to be in direct proportion to the negative economic stability of a community.

As with the construction industry, retail jobs might still grow in a declining economy but the overall local job market reflects declining earnings numbers. A business might layoff a number of full time employees and increase part-time workers. Thus, there are a number of temporary new jobs, but both wages and earnings are in decline, showing an unhealthy local economy. More jobs at reduced pay follows suit when the number of jobseekers outnumbers the jobs available.

POLICOM is a member of the Pasco-Hernando Jobs & Education Partnership and Regional Board, Inc. The Career Central program has a stated goal “To serve as a catalyst in the community for promoting self-sufficiency through the development of a quality workforce.” Most of the board members are volunteers from local, private businesses. Resources and services, including training, recruiting, staffing, career fairs and incentive programs highlight the degree of commitment of this non-profit organization.

POLICOM has more than just a local presence. It offers economic development strategies throughout the region but also extends its services from coast to coast - north to south, east to west.

Another local client is Hernando Progress, Inc., an independent, tax-exempt organization. Information at http://www.taxexemptworld.com/ identifies 459 non-profit organizations with its network in Hernando County and over 1.6-million nationwide. The local director is Hernando Today publisher Duane Chichester.

Although the site doesn’t handle the application of new charity enterprises, there are links offering assistance.

POLICOM’s goals are not self-serving and would be a positive option of taking a broader look of Hernando County’s economic future.

…so this is what tomorrow might bring…

When August 5th comes around, the BOCC will host a number of speakers, including residents, workers in the construction business and builders. Much like the Hickory Hill LLC hearings in the spring of 2007, the same aisle that pitted one group against another will once again separate interested groups. You can’t have it both ways. Sierra Properties gained a super-majority of votes from the Commissioners but the fruits of their success won’t be realized for a generation.

Impact fee reductions might be quick in coming but a yeah vote would be felt by more taxpayers over a longer period of time than those who would benefit from the short-term benefits.

And yet, developers, builders and real estate agents are not evil - it’s a small mind that even suggests so. Their past contributions to the economy can’t be denied anymore than those of retail businesses. For now, those glory days are behind the times. One last hurrah would be as hollow as the vacant rooms in a foreclosure home.

The problem centers on the years of poor planning by the Commissioners with their zeal and overkill of unabated approval of rezoning thousands of acres of agricultural land for residential development. Time after time, they have taken the path of least resistance with their acceptance of the recommendations of the Planning & Zoning Commission. Having joint board meetings would have saved time and money.

If a majority of Commissioners vote in favor of reduced impact fees, there will still be a multitude of questions as to the fairness of distribution of profits. If eight applicants qualify as would have been the case in 2007, which builders would be awarded the slim pickin’s? What of real estate agents, title companies and mortgage lenders? Subcontractors?

What about the workers themselves? Will they be given the same pay scale as they have had in the past when jobs were plenty? Or will the paymasters offer less compensation than what would otherwise dictate? The cost of living has gone up as should wages. But supply and demand takes precedence.

Would it be possible to award a single County District the sole rights of constructing with no regard to how profits will constrict the impact of future upgrades on the infrastructure? In any given District, impact fees are restricted for use within that same District. Why not choose the big loser in advance?

Would District 5 please absorb the reduction in impact fees? Your lime rock roads aren’t likely to be paved anytime soon anyway. District 1 is already overbuilt and already has plenty of roads that aren’t getting repaired because of limited funds. Somewhere out there in your vast domain there must be a few tracts of land that are at sufficient distances from unoccupied homes so as not to create animosity for building homes where existing homeowner debts keep building.

…if they really wanted to make their own contributions to the community…

Builders could prove themselves community-minded by taking steps that others have offered in a housing market with thousands of pending sales and foreclosures. They could give the buyer a 10 to 25% discount on the purchase price of the home itself. Pre-qualification of securing a loan would be just one step – obtaining property insurance could be an insurmountable obstacle.

Remember, the purpose of the impact fee reduction is targeted to first time homeowners. When home mortgages have gravitated to only the most credit worthy, lowering the loan amount may give the buyer an edge toward realizing this once-in-a-lifetime dream home in Hernando County… or any other county in Florida that accepts the state funding.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Serving Time In Hernando County

Steve is off probation. It was a shorter period of time than what had been handed down by the judge. It appears he failed a drug “piss test” then failed to appear for a court date, a double dose of violation of probation.

He had no intention of turning himself to the sheriff’s office and avoided the eventual arrest by not going to work, which they had from court records. They hadn’t been able to locate him at the latest known place of residency because he had moved out, staying with a friend, but there came a day when he made a venture to return to work although he was well aware of the consequences.

So, he’s back in jail after just three months of the initial sentencing of probation for forging a doctor prescription. Steve had speculated that with the latest run-in with the law he might be sentenced to perhaps eight months of prison. To him, this would be acceptable because, when released, it would coincide perfectly with a planned move to Indiana for a job in a unionized company. He’d start out at about the same pay he made locally in his masonry job, but the benefits were exceptional including a company contribution into a 401k and a full array of medical coverage.

A big problem with that scenario is that he could actually be incarcerated for up to two years. His court date is coming up shortly.

Patrick is also off probation. Again, it was a shorter period of time than his sentencing dictated. He chose the two years of house arrest instead of accepting the judge’s recommendation of serving an eight-month prison term and be done with the whole affair. The judge was given an assurance from Patrick’s girlfriend that she would help him through the twenty months of relative confinement. Two months later and she should be deemed in contempt of court.

Failure to make a court-mandated payment and he’s now in jail, possibly facing his own two-year prison sentence. His most likely sharing time with Steve. There’s also a good possibility there’s a reunion of fellow small time drug users and abusers, caught with possession, driving under the influence with a suspended license, or any combination thereof plus array of other infractions.

Elizabeth is a different story. She spent a couple nights in jail waiting for someone to post bail for driving under the influence. She avoided possession by relaying the goodies to a passenger/friend. She was so out of it the first night in jail that, while sitting against a cell wall, she fell forward, breaking a front tooth.

This happened within a week of her 21st birthday and a week prior to a planned move to live with grandparents in Michigan. It was a six-week delay until a private lawyer and a few thousand dollars put her back on the route to get out of Spring Hill, FL.

Eight months later she made a trip back to Hernando County to pick up some personal items she had left behind. She planned to buy a car to haul more than just a few mementoes. Come to find out she had primarily come back to party. A month turned into two. Again, just a matter of days before heading back to grandma & grandpa she found herself once again in jail. Out of three carloads of friends, she was the only one left behind in Ybor City because she had strayed into the maddening crowd and failed to show up by a predetermined departure time. Her version of events put everyone else at fault.

She ended up having to take a taxi back to Spring Hill, claiming that a police officer put her in the cab knowing full well she had no means to pay for the ride. When back to Hernando County, her recollection is unclear but the driver says she did what is called a “theft of service” – she tried to scoot away to avoid payment of the transportation fees.

After another month’s delay she had boxed and shipped her belongings up north. For the time being she’s doing well, having gotten a fast food job and enrolled in a community college. She now has the opportunity to take steps toward a safe, productive life after four years of un-common sense with the money she received when both her parents passed away – same year, different cancers.

Elizabeth is very fortunate to have family that truly loves and cares for her well-being. She’s not surprised that Steve and Patrick are once again in conflict with the law – it’s inherent with living in Hernando County. She’s so relieved that she prompts others to get out of Spring Hill – way too many drugs to compensate for the lack of entertainment, limited opportunities for success and too few people who can truly be considered friends.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Boxed In - Boxed Out

In these times of reduced property taxes and the resultant limited funds available for services to Hernando County residents, we come to realize, and accept, that severe cuts in the budget are over due and in a matter of weeks hearings will eventually bring the matter to a vote by the County Commissioners.

In preparation, Administrator Dave Hamilton painstakingly took steps to not only inform concerned residents of the history of county expenditures but also gave them opportunities to identify what services they would be willing to sacrifice toward a balanced budget. Through no fault of his own, it looks like he may need to guide us through remedial meetings to identify where an additional twenty-five percent of cuts can be made.

He knows what to do and how to get things done so the challenge wouldn't daunt him one bit, but is it really necessary?

As the Commissioners dwell on the opportunity to cash in on the $20-million appropriated by the Florida Legislature from the State Housing Trust Fund, there will be a lot of give and take to consider. Give first time homebuyers incentives to purchase a home. Take away the intended purpose of covering the economic impact on county infrastructure of their purchase. And what do you get? Another shortfall of money and deeper in debt.

Road improvements, schools, parks, libraries and/or emergency services are on the line, again. Take your pick. I’m sure Mr. Hamilton and his staff would be glad to deliver a few more tally sheets to the Board. Regardless, deeper cuts would be necessary.

In my late fifties, I have private insurance and, for now, in pretty good health. Maybe I’d be willing to sacrifice the whole pot of lost funds allocated for emergency services. User fees to those in need?

Maybe you don’t read, so all libraries could be sold as-is to Borders and people can pay for knowledge at their own expense. Isn’t that the direction budget cuts are supposed to take us? It’s called macroeconomics.

Better yet, I don’t have kids so terminate at least half the working teachers, hold one big class in a gymnasium and save beaucoup bucks! Another plus side? School Superintendent Wayne Alexander would have less to oversee, so a reduction in pay would be in order.

And you can bet those living on lime rock roads would gag on the dust and gasp their way to the podium to ask that road improvement moneys be left alone - another attempt to get the County to keep its promise to upgrade their roads.

Commissioner Dave Russell wants to “think outside the box” but the county is already boxed in with thousands of empty houses. Administrator Hamilton gave the number at 3,689 (at last count) when he expressed the negative effect it would have on the County. County Planning Director Ron Pianta has the same concern. Diane Rowden continues to be leery of speculative development. This past year she was a frequent dissenter of rezoning requests for new subdivisions. She was one step ahead of the times but out of step to others’ interests.

Something would have to give. Out of about $9,200 in impact fees, over $2,200 would be sacrificed to the benefit of developers, real estate agents, title companies and mortgage lenders – and their employees, plus the buyers themselves. Last year, only eight homebuyers would have qualified, and those were for existing home sales.

The Commission has set aside a public hearing for July 15. There’ll be a group of builders and a long line of other influences behind them. They prompted the Commission to hold the hearing and will by far outnumber residents who will eventually be the ones to pay for the shortfalls. Builders have the time – they want the money.

There’ll be another time and another housing boom that warrants construction to once again begin, but for right now it’s a losing proposition to existing homeowners, especially those who have homes they can’t get rid of. Until better economic times, Hernando County is all boxed out.

House For Sale

Three years ago I was in the throes of selling one home to buy another, entrusting my investment to a freshman real estate agent. Harry is a successful businessman whose upscale retail store of glassware (Swarvoski and Bacarra) and ceramics (Capo De Monte, Lladro and Hummel) had become a frequent shopping target. I bought trinkets as compared to items that many of his other customers would purchase.

His goal was to upgrade from a $500k house to one twice the value. His professionalism was given with every customer purchase – the slightest flaw was unacceptable. He would return it to the manufacture and scrutinize another piece if it was in stock. I had no doubt his new adventure in real estate would be another success. After a year, he would become his own broker. I was his first client toward that goal.

When he shared his ideas of opening a real estate office, he hinted toward considering me as office manager, but the conversation led to my interest in his guidance to sell my home in Orlando.

Even though he had already given me a few concessions on his fees, he went out of bounds of what a typical agent might provide. He escorted me from Orange to Hernando County so we could both gain from the experience. He knew my circumstances for the move - he wanted exposure to every facet of his new trade.

His first attempts were through the typical means of MLS listings. This was not a good experience. Pre-owned homes were the first considerations. His disgust of what we saw dwarfed my own.

Front yards were poorly maintained but you don’t buy a house with landscaping a major concern. Most often, we cringed at the interiors. There is one house in particular that sticks out among the rest. Every room was dark and dreary.

The family room was poorly kept but the master bedroom was most repulsive. It may have served as a room for picture developing. An unmade bed and all kinds of “debris” lying on the floor were bad but the closets were disgusting. Not a single piece of clothing was hung properly on hangers; a policeman’s uniform was shabbily displayed in front. With cloths strewn on the floor there was little or no walking space.

Then there was the porch. The kick panel had serviced its purpose too many times, dislodged from the framework. Segments of screens were ripped. Harry was the first to suggest we just leave. Other dwellings may have been less offensive but were still poorly shown.

There are some basic principles to be followed if the seller and agent are truly intent on making the sale.

Natural rays of light brighten the house, giving rooms a more open feeling, as does removal of clutter. Personal knickknacks distract buyers from how they envision their own showpieces. Clean floors avoid hygiene from being a concern.

Most of what might be removed to give a more homey feeling won’t be missed. But what about keeping things out of sight? Box it, store it in the garage. It’s a perfect time to do some weeding, a perfect opportunity to hold a garage sale. You’ll also give the buyer the impression that you’re ready to move ASAP.

With all of these suggestions, Harry still wasn’t completely satisfied with the appearance of my home. After 15 years, the home was as clean and neat as anyone could expect. Yet, he had me go a few steps further. On his suggestion, I removed a few wall pictures (and patched and painted over nail holes) for a roomier feeling. He had me place simple flower arrangements in the living room, kitchen and master bath. Highlighting the garden tub would entice women. Mildly scented candles in every room and the A/C set at a pleasant temperature added to the aura of the home.

Harry gave me notice to vacate the house whenever prospective buyers were to tour the house. People are leery of open discussion when the seller is present; they feel intrusive when they should be welcomed.

I didn’t buy a previously owned home in Spring Hill. My realtor was privy to an investor home not yet put on the market. I was very fortunate. It’s near perfect to my wants and needs. But Adams’ architect failed to include a linen closet!

This is not a perfect world, but if your want to sell your house, just remember the interested party is looking to buy a home. A house isn’t necessarily a home unless it looks the picture in the eyes of the prospective buyer.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Everybody Dance Now!

Everybody dance now! It’s been three, going on four, decades since you may have put on your boogie shoes, gone to funkytown to dance the night away. It was usually a case of Friday or Saturday night fever that made you feel like you were hot stuff and you knew you were born to be alive!

As they would dim all the lights, glitter from a disco ball would get you in the mood to put on your boogie shoes to boogie oogie oogie in boogie wonderlandall night long.
A few too many drinks and you’d be dancing on the ceiling.

For the guys, visions of being a John Travolta would lead to some jive talkin’ and the hustle had to be played out because of a bad case of boogie fever. They were looking for more, more, more because they were ready to get down tonight, stayin’ alive to keep it coming, love. One or more studs might not want to rock the boat, but they might very well turn the beat around and rock your baby.

On ladies night, the girls aimed to shake your booty or shake your groove thing – anything to show that she is more than a woman – she’s a dancin’ machine! She felt like dancin’ in heaven – not ready for a rockin’ chair. For the love of money, she’d swear to god she wanted more, more, more as she proclaimed, I love the nightlife! She may not have needed nights on Broadway but she still wanted to be able to say, Oh what a night!

I was a little shy back then but when the music played, I admitted that I got to give it up and, if necessary, find me dancin’ with myself. Besides, it was a night of celebration at the best disco in town.

When ABBA was played, everybody was a dancin’ queen, feeling that ‘we are family’ and ‘that’s the way I like it’ – you got to make it real. There was no shame to take your time - do it right, because you wre meant to shake your groove thing ‘til the very last dance.

Disco days and disco balls were happier times for many of us. When friends come over, the collection of CDs overwhelms them with songs and singers they rarely think of any more. But it’s the party songs of the 70s that conjure up the most unique period in our lives. Younger or older, people still can’t keep from singing along or, at the least, do a bit of tap-dancing, bopping their heads and swaying with the music.

For the most part, they were good times. People reminisce with me and, although our ages may be somewhat distant, yearn for another day, another night of dancing as they have done in the past. Conversations invariably turn to disappointment and a little resentment that there is nothing to do in Spring Hill. There’s always a hint toward a desire to move because, among other things, the distance, cost and a perception of traveling to Tampa is risky pleasure. It kind of dulls the anticipation of having a really good time.

People want access to entertainment, exercise, and social mingling. Dancing provides all three without spending an hour to get there... another hour to get back home. And people would have a reason to get out of their mole home and stay out awhile after dark. A keen businessman might give consideration of such an investment opportunity. Some people would be content to sit and sip and watch the crowd and still have a good time while others would like to spike their hair, loosen up their buttons and get the party started!